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亞化咨詢:國家清潔油品升級戰略下地煉企業的機遇與挑戰

 當前,城市霧霾問題受到重點關注,中央政府正大力推進清潔油品升級,即降低汽柴油中硫、烯烴、芳烴的含量。20155月,國家發改委等七部門發布《加快成品油質量升級工作方案》,明確要求自201611日起,東部11省市全面供應國五標準的車用汽柴油201711日起,全國全面供應國V標準的車用汽柴油2018 日起,全國普通柴油的硫含量達到國V標準。并要求在2019年開始實施國VI標準。

V汽柴油含硫量不大于10ppm,比國IV標準硫含量降低80%。汽油升級重點是催化汽油深度脫硫和增產高辛烷值組分。柴油升級重點方向是深度加氫脫硫和改質。2016年,預計東部地區國V標準車用汽油需求6400萬噸,車用柴油5310萬噸。2017年全國車用汽油需求12900萬噸、車用柴油12110萬噸。2018年國V標準普通柴油需求約5200萬噸。

 

根據《山東地方煉化產業轉型升級實施方案2014》,柴油在201511日前達到國Ⅳ標準,汽油和柴油在20179月底前達到國Ⅴ標準。

《山東地方煉化產業轉型升級實施方案2014》目標

 

2017

2020

一次加工能力

< 1 億噸/

~ 1 億噸/

加工量

6000 萬噸

7500 萬噸

汽柴油產量

3500 萬噸

5000 萬噸

縮減落后產能

1200 萬噸

----

地煉平均規模

450 萬噸/

500 萬噸/

綜合能耗

63千克標油/

60千克標油/

乙烯產量

----

100 萬噸

芳烴產量

----

100 萬噸

 

地煉企業要做強做大,需要進行原料和產品結構優化、加強銷售網絡建設、實施兼并聯合等。國內地煉龍頭企業東明石化已經率先嘗試。20153月,東明石化與卡塔爾投資發展集團(QID Group)和哈馬德·本·蘇海姆(Hamad Bin Suhaim)企業集團簽署初步協議,以50億美元出讓東明石化49%的權益。資金將用于東明石化菏澤煉油廠方圓300公里范圍內的6個省份建立并運營1000家加油()站;在廣西欽州地區建設一座300萬噸LNG接收終端等

 

亞化咨詢認為,隨著國家清潔油品升級戰略的加速,山東地煉企業的升級改造必須比原計劃提前進行。對地煉企業而言,機遇是未來清潔油品市場廣闊;挑戰是產業升級需要大量資金投入。在油價相對低迷,煉油行業盈利狀況不佳的情況下,清潔油品標準,將成為中小地煉企業必須面對的一個門檻。

 

由亞化咨詢主辦的首屆中國清潔油品技術經濟研討會將于2015730-31日在青島召開。重點探討國家政策和清潔油品升級方向;中國未來清潔汽柴油的市場展望;中低油價背景下清潔油品升級改造技術經濟分析;新建煉油裝置和煉廠擴能規劃;煤(甲醇)制清潔汽柴油的技術與項目進展;先進低成本制氫技術與應用;催化裂化、加氫、脫硫技術進展;異辛烷項目投資與環保型異辛烷生產技術;煉油廠環保與節能減排方案;替代燃料的競爭性分析等。

 

 

 

 

Chances & Challenges: Local refineries & national oil products upgrading program

 

Currently, urban smog problem is concerned by public, the central government is vigorously promoting oil products upgrading for cleaner fuels, namely to reduce the sulfur, olefins, aromatics contents of gasoline and diesel. In May 2015, NDRC and other 6 ministries issued <To speed up the refined oil products quality upgrading program>, which requires the 11 provinces in east China to supply China V (CN-V) standard vehicles used gasoline and diesel since Jan. 1, 2016; and to supply CN-V standard vehicles used gasoline nationwide since Jan. 1, 2017. Since Jan.1, 2018, the sulfur content of ordinary diesel will reach CN-V standard. And since 2019, begin to implement the CN-VI standard.

 

CN-V gasoline and diesel requires sulfur content not more than 10ppm, an 80% decrease than the CN-IV standard. The key points of gasoline upgrading are deep desulfurization and increase of high octane components; diesel upgrading are deep hydro-desulfurization and quality modification. In 2016, the east China’s demand for CN-V standard motor used gasoline will be 64 Mt; motor used diesel 53.1 Mt. In 2017, nationwide demand is expected at 129 Mt of motor used gasoline, and motor used diesel 121.1 Mt. In 2018, CN-V standard ordinary diesel demand will be about 52 Mt.

 

According to "Shandong local refinery industry upgrading program 2014", diesel should reach CN-IV standard before January 1, 2015; gasoline and diesel reach CN-V standard before the end of September 2017.

 

Target of <Shandong local refinery industry upgrading program 2014>

 

2017

2020

Processing capacity

< 100 Mt/a

~ 100 Mt/a

Processing amount

60 Mt

75 Mt

Gasoline & diesel output

35 Mt

50 Mt

Backward capacity reduction

12 Mt

----

Average scale

4.5 Mt/a

5 Mt/a

Comprehensive energy consumption

63 kgeo/t

60 kgeo/t

Ethylene production

----

1 Mt

Aromatics production

----

1 Mt

 

Refining enterprises to be bigger and stronger, the raw materials and products structure optimization, strengthening the sales network construction, and the implementation of merger, consolidation and so on are necessary. Domestic leading refiner – Dongming Petrochemical has initiated its first attempt. In March 2015, Dongming Petrochemical and Qatra Investment Development Group (QID Group) and Hamad Bin SuhaimEnterprise Group signed a preliminary agreement to sell a 49% stakes of Dongming Petrochemical worth $ 5 billion, for building 1,000 petrol stations across six provinces, a 300-kilometre radius of the company’s Heze refinery in Shandong province in eastern China, and a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal with a 3 Mt/a in the region of Qinzhou, Guangxi Province.

 

ASIACHEM believes that with the acceleration of national cleaner oil upgrading strategy, the upgrading of local refiners must be ahead of their former schedule. To refining companies, the opportunity is vast clean fuel market in the future; while the challenge is industrial upgrading require significant capital investment. At relatively low prices, poor profitability of the oil refining industry, the cleaner oil standard, will become a threshold for small & middle refining companies must be faced.

 

China Oil Products Upgrading Conference 2015 will be organized by ASIACHEM in Qingdao July 30-31. The upcoming conference will discuss policy for cleaner fuels & oil products upgrading trends ; China's clean gasoline & diesel market outlook; techno-economics of oil products upgrading under mid-low oil prices; new refineries & the refining expansion projects; coal (methanol) based clean fuels; advanced low-cost hydrogen technologies & application; catalytic cracking, hydrogenation, desulfurization technologies advances; iso-octane projects & environmentally friendly iso-octane technologies; refineries environmental protection & energy conservation solutions ; competitive analysis of other alternative fuels.


 
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